Who Should and Will Win Big at This Year's Grammy Awards

Music's Biggest Night is taking place this Sunday, February 2nd. Here are my predictions about how it will all go down.

Like most music fans, I basically spend my whole year waiting for that fateful February night when a handful of middle-aged, out of touch voting members decide whether or not I’ll be celebrating or complaining online for the next week. In years past, I’ve shared my own unofficial predictions with friends about who I think might win some of the major awards of the night. This year, I decided to formalize this tradition and spend some time outlining who I think will walk away with awards, who I think may leave empty-handed, and who I think actually should end up in both camps. For the sake of time, I’ve only selected a few categories to dive into, but I’ve also included extra predictions at the end for some of the categories I didn’t have the time to analyze in greater detail.

Record of the Year

Should Win: Not Like Us

Will Win: Now and Then

Unless you spent the entirety of 2024 living under a rock on a deserted island, you’re familiar with the industry-shaking beef that took place between Kendrick Lamar and Drake. The two artists had been taking shots at one another through the years, but their beef was officially set in motion when Lamar took aim at Drake on a featured verse on “Like That,” a single from Future and Metro Boomin’s collaborative album, released earlier in 2024. And the rest is history. Lamar was the undeniable victor when the beef reached its stalemate, but the true winner was the general public, because we ended up getting “Not Like Us,” an epic diss track that doubles as a thumping club anthem full of unforgettably sharp lyrics that also make for an excellent quotable. The song’s momentum shows no signs of slowing, especially with Lamar’s Super Bowl halftime performance scheduled to take place just one week after the Grammys. Record of the Year is typically awarded to the year’s biggest song- whether that be commercially, culturally, or both. “Not Like Us” absolutely fits the bill, but I predict it will be edged out by the “new” quasi-posthumous Beatles track, “Now and Then.” If there’s one thing Grammy voters love more than anything, its tradition, and there’s nothing more traditional than a Beatles song. Combine the Recording Academy’s statistically older voting body with the music industry’s fascination with bringing artists back from the dead (AI, holograms, etc.) and we may have a perfect recipe for disappointment on Sunday. I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you to be on the lookout for Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” as well- while I’m not sure about the track’s viability among voters, if it were to win any of its nominations, I predict it would be this one.

Album of the Year

Should Win: COWBOY CARTER

Will Win: HIT ME HARD AND SOFT

It goes without saying that Beyoncé is overdue for an Album of the Year Grammy- she has lost the award a staggering four times. While this may be true, it is not why she should win the trophy this year. To put it simply, she released the best album of the year. Her genre-busting approach to country music took the industry by storm and earned her new levels of respect and recognition in circles where she’s previously been dismissed (we all remember her infamous 2016 CMA performance). COWBOY CARTER is a sprawling effort that not only affirmed Beyoncé's masterful approach to genre exploration, but is also proving to be a defining cultural document for Black country music as a whole. A number of the album’s featured artists have already begun seeing career boosts and other tangible benefits as a direct result of the exposure provided by their appearances on the album- Shaboozey has gone from the country underground to the top of the charts, now holding the record for the longest running #1 song in Hot 100 history. Unfortunately, I don’t think any of that matters very much to Grammy voters. Billie Eilish has proven herself to be a Grammy darling, despite walking away empty-handed for her sophomore effort in 2022. Voters are likely to view her 2024 release, HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, as a step in a more mature direction, possibly righting the perceived wrongs of Happier Than Ever. There’s no denying Eilish’s talent, but I personally found HIT ME HARD AND SOFT to be a bit jumbled and much less daring than many have argued. Beyoncé is also an industry fixture, which often works against her in the eyes of voters- Eilish is still viewed as a young upstart, whose output is therefore inherently more impressive as a result of her age. Charli XCX’s BRAT may also emerge as a wildcard option for an upset win. I consider this less likely than an Eilish win solely based on the demographics of the voting body, but I do think it is the objectively better choice, and I’m sure many voters would agree. It remains to be seen who will prevail in the end, but I’m not getting my hopes up (again…).

Song of the Year

Should Win: Not Like Us

Will Win: BIRDS OF A FEATHER

“Not Like Us” has a rare combination of commercial appeal and expert musicianship that is typically only appreciated by the Recording Academy when it comes from singer/songwriters or country artists. Rappers have a much harder time breaking through into the general field (save for the rare emergence of a juggernaut like “This Is America,” which scratches a different itch for voters looking to award a “message song”). “Not Like Us” has these traditional forces working against it coupled with the fact that it is, at its core, a blistering diss track. While it may be the most well-written of the bunch, I have a hard time believing that voters would go for a track that explicitly accuses Drake of sex crimes, as funny as that would be. I predict the more conventionally appealing “BIRDS OF A FEATHER” will take the win this year, and it would not be an undeserving victor by any means. The track is a highlight off of Eilish’s latest album, and its blissful melodies are likely to charm their way into the hearts of voters. If there were to be a dark horse in this category, it’s most likely to be “Die With A Smile,” the duet from Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars. Grammy voters have historically shown favor towards both artists, so it’s possible that a collaboration between the two might achieve a voting majority based off name alone.

Best New Artist

Should Win: Doechii

Will Win: Chappell Roan

I’ve written extensively about why I think Doechii should win this award, and I encourage you to read my thoughts here for a better explanation of my position. In the end, I predict that her expertly-crafted campaign will be no match for Chappell Roan’s origin story of the trials and tribulations that accompany her meteoric rise to fame. Both artists have been steadily gaining recognition in their respective underground circles for years, making it all the more ironic, and unfortunate for voters, that they broke through at relatively the same time. Neither artist could ever be accused of being easily digestible; with Roan’s unfiltered honesty and flamboyant stage presence, and Doechii’s brutally honest and sometimes uncomfortable subject matter, it can’t be said that voters would pick one over the other to avoid controversy. In a perfect world, these two would not be facing off in the same year, and voters would be able to award them both. I do think it’s more likely that voters will gravitate towards Roan’s more widely acceptable pop appeal. Her connections to Olivia Rodrigo and their shared producer Daniel Nigro have also provided her more widespread industry opportunities and a better vehicle to share her story. Doechii’s best path to a win would be to hope that Roan and Carpenter split the pop vote- which is a real possibility- and that her efforts have been enough to prove her undeniable talents to voters. Both artists would make an excellent choice and would continue the several years long streak that seems to be breaking the dreaded Best New Artist curse.

Best Pop Solo Performance

Should Win: Good Luck, Babe

Will Win: Good Luck, Babe

I might regret saying this, but I think the pop categories are pretty easy to predict this year. “Good Luck, Babe” may seem like the obvious choice for this award- because it is. The track exploded onto the scene immediately upon its release and hasn’t let up since, marking the true breakthrough moment for Chappell Roan into the pop landscape. She was already picking up steam and achieved some virality off of a few tracks from her late-2023 debut album, and “Good Luck, Babe” landed at the perfect moment where audience curiosity was at its peak and all eyes were on her. The track also benefitted from a stellar live performance at Coachella- another viral moment for Roan- that only increased interest in both the track and herself as an artist. Even if you remove all of the promotional fanfare, “Good Luck, Babe” would still be a perfect pop song. This category is full of strong contenders, but I don’t think any of them will pose much of a threat. “Good Luck, Babe” is simply too good to deny, and I think we will see it reign victorious over some of its more commercially successful competitors.

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

Should Win: Die With A Smile

Will Win: Die With A Smile

It seems like something of a non-factor that “Die With A Smile” will win this award. Gaga has won this category twice before (and would become the first three-time winner in Grammy history if she takes this award) and Mars has a Pop Duo/Group trophy of his own as well. The sheer force of both artists, both in name and talent, trumps any of the other offerings that were nominated this year. The category features a few other great duets, but I would be shocked if the award doesn’t go to Gaga and Mars. Not only is their collaboration shaping up to be one of the most successful duets in history- it very well may become the most streamed song in Spotify history in the not-so-distant future- the track underneath all the success is stellar. Their voices blend beautifully together and their chemistry across the track is synergetic, combining Mars’s signature Motown influences with Gaga’s vocal ability and knack for power balladry. Sometimes the obvious choice is also the correct one, and I think this is one of those times.

Best Pop Vocal Album

Should Win: The Rise And Fall Of A Midwest Princess

Will Win: Short n’ Sweet

I know my predictions thus far have been relatively devoid of Sabrina Carpenter, and this is not without reason. Simply put, I think pop voters are more likely to go for someone more familiar, like Eilish, or go full-tilt in the direction of someone bold and unique, like Roan. Like Billie Eilish in 2022 and Olivia Rodrigo in 2024, sometimes it just isn’t your year. However, I don’t think Carpenter will be going home empty-handed. Her 2024 offering, Short n’ Sweet, is likely to snag the Best Pop Vocal Album trophy. Previous winners have almost exclusively been some of their respective years’ most commercially successful pop albums. Short n’ Sweet definitely fits that description, boasting a stronger debut than all but one of the other albums in this category- Taylor Swift’s THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT. I think it’s quite possible that Taylor may leave this year’s ceremony without a trophy, though if she does win, I would say this category is her most likely chance. My preferred pick, The Rise And Fall Of A Midwest Princess, also poses a threat in this category, but I think voters will want to award Carpenter’s banner year in some way. I don’t see voters loving “Espresso” in the way many pundits have been predicting, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carpenter’s full body of work be rewarded instead.

Best Dance Pop Recording

Should Win: Got Me Started

Will Win: yes, and?

Best Dance Pop Recording is still finding its place among the other well-established categories, being that this is only its second year of existence. That being said, it’s somewhat harder to predict a winner in a category that doesn’t have decades worth of trends to examine. I can, however, tell you which song is the best of the group, and that is Troye Sivan’s “Got Me Started.” Though its parent album Something To Give Each Other was otherwise ignored by Grammy voters- save for a nomination for lead single “Rush” in this same category last year- Sivan has still earned himself some recognition for his excellent work. “Got Me Started” is built around an ingenious sample of “Shooting Stars” by Bag Raiders, and features Sivan’s signature euphoric dance-pop punctuated by a percussive garage beat. It is an expertly crafted and executed track- by far the most innovative of all the nominees. If last year’s winner is any indication, voters seem to be awarding the most established name in the category, which is why I’m predicting the award to go to Grande. She’s been courting public favor galore since her Oscar-nominated star turn in this year’s cinematic musical blockbuster, Wicked, and her track’s production team of Max Martin and ILYA is one of the most respected in the industry. Though I consider “yes, and?” to be one of the weaker tracks off her impressive 2024 album, eternal sunshine, its win would be far from unjustifiable.

Best Dance/Electronic Album

Should Win: BRAT

Will Win: BRAT

This should surprise absolutely nobody, and for good reason. Although six months may have passed since we experienced our BRAT summer, and some of its shine may have dimmed with time, it would still be a complete shock to not see Charli XCX run away with this award. It helps that her competition is not exactly what you’d consider “stiff,” but she would still come out on top in a year full of bigger names- the album is just that good. Charli XCX achieved a rare kind of cultural ubiquity in 2024, partly from the culmination of her marketing genius and memeability, but also because of her excellent musical output and high-octane joint tour with Troye Sivan. BRAT is pure club euphoria, and people obviously needed to feel some of that sweaty, sensual bliss after so many years of isolation and anxiety. It created a beautiful sense of shared joy that allowed all of us to truly let go and give in to the thump of the beat, and it deserves to be rewarded by music’s most important awards body. Though not necessarily reflected in my official predictions, I think there’s even a chance that we see BRAT awarded at a higher level in one (or more) of the general field categories. Only time will tell.

Additional Predictions

Best R&B Performance

Should Win: Saturn
Will Win: Saturn

Best R&B Song

Should Win: Saturn
Will Win: Saturn

Best Rap Performance

Should Win: NISSAN ALTIMA
Will Win: Not Like Us

Best Melodic Rap Performance

Should Win: SPAGHETII
Will Win: SPAGHETII

Best Rap Song

Should Win: Not Like Us
Will Win: Not Like Us

Best Rap Album

Should Win: Alligator Bites Never Heal
Will Win: We Don’t Trust You

Best Country Solo Performance

Should Win: 16 CARRIAGES
Will Win: 16 CARRIAGES

Best Country Duo/Group Performance

Should Win: II MOST WANTED
Will Win: II MOST WANTED

Best Country Song

Should Win: TEXAS HOLD ‘EM
Will Win: A Bar Song (Tipsy)

Best Country Album

Should Win: COWBOY CARTER
Will Win: COWBOY CARTER

Best Latin Pop Album

Should Win: ORQUÍDEAS
Will Win: Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran